Spanish – The Democrats are going all out against Donald Trump, who will leave the White House on January 20. There are only a few days left. Nevertheless, on Monday, they began the process for a second impeachment and his removal from office. The natural question then arises: Why are the Democrats so urgent? The reasons may be varied. They range from setting a precedent, gaining political revenge, disqualifying him for future aspirations, and even preventing him from declassifying confidential information that compromises the stability of the American political establishment or secret files of global interest.
This last point – where the so-called conspiracy theories come in – gained force with the public exhortation made on Friday by the president’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. The former New York mayor believes that the Republican leader owes it to his supporters to “declassify everything” before leaving office. He said so in a podcast with former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.
“There is no longer any reason to try to create some kind of harmony. At many times, I thought he was ready to do it, and many times it was blocked by, I have to assume, the force that we now call the ‘deep state,'” Giuliani said, according to information released by the Daily Caller.
Documents related to Russia appear as the priority for Rudy Giuliani. On December 30, 2018, the president’s lawyer said in an interview released by The Hill that he would “love” to see Trump declassify documents about Russia, making it clear that he had no idea about the information contained in these files.
— The Hill (@thehill) December 30, 2018
On October 7, 2020, Donald Trump took a step in this direction when he announced through Twitter that he had authorized the declassification of documents about the Russian plot and the emails of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to the Voice of America.
“I have fully authorized the complete declassification of any and all documents pertaining to the greatest political crime in the history of the United States, the Russian hoax. Likewise, the Hillary Clinton email scandal – no deletions!”
Another precedent that deserves mention was the declassification of the files on the assassination of former President John F. Kennedy, which was authorized by Donald Trump on October 22, 2017, according to France 24. More than 3000 documents were declassified.
A topic that excites many and generates skepticism in others has to do with the so-called unidentified flying objects (UFO). In April 2020, the Pentagon declassified three videos of anomalous aerial phenomena recorded between 2004 and 2015. Additionally, on December 28, Trump signed a request to the Pentagon to report to Congress all that is known about unidentified aerial phenomena.
But expectations in this area are reaching a more delirious level for many. The former head of Israeli space security, Haim Eshed, said in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot, reproduced in English by the Jerusalem Post, that “aliens are real and Donald Trump knows it.”
Democratic harassment and Republican resistance
Landing back in Congress, Democrats began the process for a second political trial against Donald Trump on Monday, charging him with the alleged crime of “inciting insurrection” over the break-in of a hundred of his supporters on Capitol Hill last Wednesday.
According to the EFE news agency, before voting on the indictment, the Democrats want to give Vice President Mike Pence one last chance to try to remove Trump by invoking the process established in the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. Pence had ruled out this option on Friday in response to the first request by Nancy Pelosi, who insisted on the request on Sunday by giving the vice president 24 hours. The Democrats, with Nancy Pelosi at the helm, are determined to prevent Trump from finishing his term.
In an interview with the PanAm Post, political analyst Jeffrey Kihien emphasized that “with the impeachment, they seek to annul an eventual Trump candidacy in 2024,” clarifying that this is not only convenient for Democrats but also for many Republicans. And as for the fear that the president could declassify information, he warned that “there is a lot of classified information circulating on the web, but if Trump declassifies it, it is something else. Conspiracy theories would be nothing in the face of the harsh political reality.”
Nevertheless, Kihien considers it unlikely that this will happen. Not because the president doesn’t want to do it, but because he would find many detractors who would prevent it. And he does not refer only to the apparent fear of the Democrats. Resistance would come from his own party. “I doubt he will declassify information; they won’t let him. The Bush branch wants to retake control of the Republican Party. They want to return to the Pentagon.”
Donald Trump and a third party
For the conservative analyst, the greatest fear lies in the fact that Trump will leave the White House with a flow of 75 million votes that he will seek to rally around his movement. This would mean the end of bipartisanship in the United States.
Kihien estimates that the possible birth of a third party would drag down all conservative voters, causing the Republican Party to take the same leftist course as the Democratic Party. “A polarization of the left against the right would again arise, and Democrats and Republicans would be left on the same side.”
Although the Democratic Party now controls both chambers of Congress, the chances that the impeachment will succeed are slim. The brief session of the House of Representatives on Monday showed that the proposal to impeach the president has so far received 210 supporters, EFE said.
Impeachment does not have the votes in the Senate
The Democrats have 222 seats in the lower house to pass the indictment against the president and require a simple majority of 218 votes, or even less if there are absences on the floor. All indications are that they would find no obstacles there.
In the Senate, the story is different. Although the Democrats secured control of the upper house with the two seats won in Georgia, the balance of power remains 50/50, and the tie-breaking vote will go to the vice president, who, until January 20, is Republican Mike Pence. It should be added that the Senate does not plan to resume its activities until January 19, one day before the change of command.
Additionally, Jeffrey Kihien adds that impeachment can pass with an absolute majority in the House of Representatives, but a two-thirds vote is required in the Senate. “There is no vote in the Senate for impeachment. What Republican senators would vote in favor without risking losing their seats?”
Pelosi pressures have not succeeded
There are several ways Democrats have tried to get Trump out early, or at least to take away his power. Last Friday, Nancy Pelosi asked Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to deny the president access to nuclear weapons codes. But Pentagon officials denied her request, arguing that any attempt to disregard the president’s orders would amount to a military coup, a group of officials told The New York Times.
On Monday, Democrats unanimously tried to pass a resolution requiring Pence to “immediately use his powers” under the 25th Amendment to remove Trump, but a Republican congressman opposed it.
Mike Pence remains the focus of Democratic pressure. The full House is considering a vote on the amendment this Tuesday and is giving Pence 24 hours to act if he does not want an impeachment. The EFE agency says that “no action is expected from the vice president. Therefore, everything indicates that the House will vote on Wednesday on the charge against Trump.
President until the last day
The truth is that Joe Biden will take office on January 20. And in the remaining week and a half, Donald Trump remains the president of the United States and commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces to make any decisions contemplated within his duties. For example, a week before leaving the White House, Barack Obama repealed the law protecting Cubans who touch US soil, known as “wet foot, dry foot.”
Now the efforts of Donald Trump’s detractors are focused on erasing him from the US political map once he leaves the presidency to try to dismantle the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement that managed to rally conservative voters. In this scenario, analyst Jeffrey Kihien closes his analysis with two questions: can Donald Trump’s movement survive without Trump? Can the Republican Party win an election without Trump?