Spanish – It’s not just the White House. On November 3, the efforts of the Democrats and Republicans will also focus on the indispensable Congress, composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
There are 470 seats at stake. Of that number, 35 are in the Senate and 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Every two years, one-third of the U.S. Senate and the entire House of Representatives are elected.
This time, the goal of both Republicans and Democrats is to achieve control of all three: the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. Both sides have it tough.
The latest feat came in the early years of Donald Trump’s term when Republicans had a majority in both houses with Trump as president.
The fighting sides
The Democrats look forward to a trilogy of victories. Their side needs to maintain its control in the House of Representatives, get around the Senate (where they have a slight lead in the polls), and, more importantly, get Joe Biden to unseat Trump.
The Republicans have their aspirations very clear. They are aware that the House is a complicated target and are focused on retaining the Senate and revalidating their candidate in the White House, as per the Hispanic Council’s analysis.
According to this organization that promotes relations between Spain and the United States- with a presence in Madrid and Washington-, the Senate stands out in this election for two key aspects: the confirmation of conservative judge Amy Coney Barrett and the halt to the process of removing Donald Trump from office.
Likewise, both these incidents show that the Republican control of the House has been an important support for the president. This appreciation coincides with the Infobae report, which highlights that the composition of the future Senate is vital because “it facilitates or makes political initiatives impossible.”
Coveted senate seats
Of the seats in the bid for the Senate, 16 have been identified as possible battlegrounds in tomorrow’s election. Of those, four are Democrats, and 12 are Republicans.
“For the Democrats, it would be enough to keep their current seats and only get four of the seats that the Republicans are contesting in the election,” the Spanish organization points out on its website.
They argue that the Republicans won two seats in the Senate in the 2018 general election, bringing their majority to 53.
The Democrats, then, won 45 seats after the election, and independents who joined the Democrats also won two.
In the case of the House of Representatives, according to the main polls, there are 41 of the 435 seats in the House, which is equivalent to 9.4%, which may be in dispute. Of those 41 seats, 20 are Democrats, 20 are Republicans, and one is a libertarian.
“It is more difficult for Republicans to regain the House of Representatives, since, in addition to keeping all their seats, they must also regain 20 seats from the Democrats,” says the study published by The Hispanic Council.
Specifically, they point out that “in all likelihood, the Democratic Party will keep the House under their control.”
Campaign funds make the way easier. The Biden-backed party maintained an offensive campaign with 57 million USD more than the Republicans, improving its position in 18 precincts that the Republicans won by more than ten percentage points two years ago.
Pulse of the polls
There are undecided voters, and the Trump side is exercising caution. They know that “a possible victory of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, in the presidential elections could become traumatic if the Republicans preserve their current mandate,” as Infobae‘s analysis points out.
There are reasons for this consideration. They are based on the fact that the experienced leader of the current Republican majority in the Upper House, Mitch McConnell, would lead the Senate and dedicate his administration to systematically blocking any political initiative by Biden.
It is hard for the blue camp to claim victory. Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader, says that “no one here takes anything for granted.”
He confessed this in declarations to The Hill when he recalled the debacle in the presidential elections four years ago. Then-Democratic-candidate, Hillary Clinton, who was a favorite in all the polls, lost to Donald Trump.
The Democratic accounts
A total of 50 seats in the House would be ideal for the Democrats. The number would tip the U.S. vice president and the Senate presidency in their favor and give them an additional vote to break ties.
They are concentrating their work in three states: Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. In these areas, Republican Senators Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst are likely to lose their seats because of the negative impact of President Trump’s criticism of the management of the coronavirus pandemic.
Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and perhaps Georgia could register a Democratic victory, while only one “blue” seat seems to be in jeopardy, that of Democratic Senator from Alabama, Doug Jones, for the benefit of Republican Tommy Tuberville.