Versión Español
Spanish.- A total of 15 states and a U.S. territory will choose their candidate for the November presidential elections on March 5. This day, known as Super Tuesday, is the most significant date on the electoral calendar before the general elections. On one side, former President Donald Trump seeks to bury the aspirations of former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley within the Republican camp. On the other side, current President Joe Biden aims to solidify his candidacy for re-election in the Democratic primaries, which, due to the lack of substantial rivals, appear more like a mere formality.
The numbers are crucial to understanding this contest: Republicans will compete for 865 delegates out of a total of 2,429. That’s approximately 35%. Meanwhile, in the Democratic Party, 1,420 delegates will be distributed out of a total of 3,934, which is equivalent to 36% of the total. Why is this step so important? Because these designated individuals will later secure the definitive presidential nomination for each political organization.
- Also a good reading: Nikki Haley’s Strategy to Keep Her Presidential Aspirations Alive
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Apart from the numbers, there are unignorable precedents. Since the first Super Tuesday in 1988, every Republican who secures the majority of states ends up winning the presidential nomination. Considering that Trump has garnered 247 Republican delegates (from primaries and caucuses) compared to the 43 that Haley has, it’s not difficult to predict that the former president will once again face off against Biden for the White House.
Achieving the “magic number”
Each candidate starts the day with their eyes on the goal of reaching the magic number. This number formally anoints the candidate at their party’s upcoming convention. For Republicans, a minimum of 1,215 delegates (out of the total 2,429) is needed, while for Democrats, it’s 1,968 (out of the total 3,934).
That’s why Super Tuesday becomes such an important springboard. By securing the majority of delegates on this day, a significant portion of the journey is already accomplished. Later, as is often the case, the magic number is reached between May and June. For instance, in 2016, the former Republican president Trump reached the necessary threshold on May 26.
The importance of Texas and California
In the Republican scenario, Nikki Haley celebrates her success this weekend in Washington, DC. However, having secured 63% of the votes compared to 33% for Trump—her sole triumph thus far—only grants her 19 delegates. On the other hand, the former Republican president recently scored a victory in the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled in his favor to keep him on the ballots for the presidential primaries after the highest state courts in Colorado, Maine, and Illinois had excluded him in those states.
This Tuesday, all eyes are on Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, and the American Samoa U.S. territory. Among this group, California and Texas offer the largest number of Republican delegates (169 and 161, respectively), representing approximately 14% of the contested seats.
Super Tuesday will not only be decisive for the election of the next U.S. president but will also serve as an opportunity for both campaigns to identify and rectify any flaws in the process leading up to the November elections.
