Spanish.- Despite the growing geopolitical alliance between Russia and China, solidified by the financial lifeline Beijing has provided to Moscow to evade Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, Russians continue to view their southeastern neighbors as a potential threat. They even contemplate the possibility of a Chinese invasion among the scenarios for the use of their tactical nuclear weapons as part of the defensive plans of the country’s Eastern Military District under the command of Vladimir Putin.
An exercise simulating a hypothetical Chinese attack suggests that Russia, referred to as the “Northern Federation” for the purpose of the war simulation, could respond with a tactical nuclear attack to halt the advance of “the South” against a second wave of invading forces, clearly referencing China. “The commander-in-chief has issued the order… to use nuclear weapons… in case the enemy deploys second-tier units and the South threatens to attack further in the direction of the main attack,” reads a series of leaked Russian military documents accessed by the Financial Times.
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These are files listing the criteria for a nuclear response from Russia, the country with the largest arsenal of its kind in the world. Among the war scenarios for Moscow to press the red button, highlights include the possible destruction of 20 percent of Russian submarines with strategic ballistic missiles by an external enemy or a potential incursion by a foreign power into its territory. It is precisely in this latter scenario that suspicions about China arise.
“Fairly low” threshold for a Russian nuclear attack
In total, there are 29 secret Russian military files prepared between 2008 and 2014 that were reportedly shown by Western sources to the British media outlet that disclosed this information on Wednesday, clarifying that although the documents date back 10 years, consulted experts assert that they remain relevant to Russia’s current military doctrine.
“This is the first time we’ve seen documents like this in the public domain,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, as reported by the Financial Times. “They show that the operational threshold for the use of nuclear weapons is quite low if the desired outcome cannot be achieved by conventional means.”
The documents are said to have been prepared to determine the criteria for the use of tactical nuclear weapons according to two types of exercises that present an uncommon view of how Russia sees its nuclear arsenal as a cornerstone of its defense policy: war game scenarios and presentations for naval officers tasked with discussing operational principles for the use of nuclear weapons.
Scenarios and types of threats
Regarding the presentation for naval officers, unrelated to war games considering the possible threat of a Chinese invasion, broader criteria for a nuclear attack are included, such as a potential “enemy landing on Russian territory, the defeat of units responsible for securing border areas, or an imminent enemy attack using conventional weapons.”
The threshold for deciding on such a military response is described in the documents as a combination of factors where losses suffered by Russian forces “would irrevocably lead to their inability to stop a major enemy aggression” and a “critical situation for the security of the Russian State.”
The difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons is also clarified. The former are designed for limited use on the battlefield in Europe and Asia, while the latter are aimed solely at the United States. However, the FT clarifies that even modern tactical warheads today have the capability to release much more energy than the nuclear bombs dropped in 1945 on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Is there a real threat?
Reactions to the disclosure of these documents were swift. From the Kremlin, a spokesperson for Vladimir Putin’s government questioned their authenticity and assured the transparency of the doctrine containing the threshold for a potential nuclear attack. Meanwhile, the Chinese government, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied any grounds for suspicion toward Moscow and cited the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation between China and Russia. “The ‘theory of threat’ has no place in China and Russia,” it added.
However, experts consulted by the British outlet do not overlook the fact that Russia has continued to strengthen its eastern defenses. William Alberque, Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, commented that “Russia continues to reinforce and exercise its nuclear-capable missiles in the Far East, near its border with China (…) and many of these systems can only target China.