Spanish – The Trump era, at least this first stage, has come to an end. The road has been rocky, to give it a name. However, the 45th president of the United States marked a series of milestones in American politics. This was not limited to fostering his image as “anti-politician” – very well built – over the years. On the contrary, analysts and even critics mumble that he implemented accurate and functional strategies at the national and international level, policies whose continuity is now in a kind of limbo with the beginning of the Joe Biden administration.
Trump was a top-notch negotiator. That is undeniable. He laid siege to his detractors, put the most dangerous to US national security at bay, and brought historic enemies of the Middle East to the same table. Pacifist diplomacy was embedded as one of his jewels to be showcased. The image of American patriotism, the particular slogan “America First,” was understood and applied to the letter. The truth is that Trump made a government for Americans. This is how the internationalist Giovanna Quina describes it in an interview with the PanAm Post.
Quina outlined several achievements Trump made during these four years in the White House. But beyond that, she fleshed out the idea by talking about which of these policies the Joe Biden administration should pursue, even though, by nature, it is known that these two leaders have great differences in addressing some topics.
No to war
Against all odds, Trump left clean of war stains. He destroyed ISIS without a war. His attacks were as certain as the death of the leader of the terrorist group ISIS, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, and the head of the Quds Force of the Iranian regime, Qassem Soleimani. Added to the “Abraham Agreements” in the Middle East, among other achievements.
With King Jong-Un, Trump also took some steps. All his actions were focused on keeping the thundering nuclear tests at bay, and he also brought a large number of troops home.
However, Democrats generally have more affinity for war, Quina says. She explains that it is not as if Biden will actually wage a war but that he may generate a justification for being in one of the issues of the domestic economic crisis does not turn around.
“It may even be as if by the internal distraction that (Biden) takes those policies. At some point, Obama did. He came closer to going to war than Trump,” she added. The specialist believes that Israel’s agreement with Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries should also continue without consideration. “It is a historical thing that should not change, and it must continue in time”.
Sanctions on the Cuban regime
Cuba and dealing with the Castro regime is a thorny issue. Trump knew this. It is preceded by the infamous rapprochement between Barack Obama and Raúl Castro, portrayed on the island in March 2016. Therefore, before letting the Democratic administration soften its relations with Castro’s supporters, the Republican chose to use his reserve cartridges as a statesman. Several blows in his final days as president buried, for now, any attempt to ease the pressures on these communists.
On this point, Quina explained that “there are policies that Trump left very well tied up. Very firm. They are not going to be government policies, but on the contrary, they are state policies. The sanctions on Cuba are not going to change at least the first year of government, Biden is not going to have a way to change this because this has a different hierarchy that is not tied to changes of government every four years.”
However, the specialist does not neglect two scenarios on the subject of the island. The first one focuses on negotiations with third parties, and she described it as follows: “Biden will not make the sanctions more flexible, but perhaps he will allow them to make the sanctions against other countries more flexible so that they can triangulate and do business with Cuba.”
This, in the expert’s opinion, could be translated into allowing again remittances to Cuba or also cruise ships at the first possible moment. A measure that will not be in the first year of government, but one that will be a policy a little more flexible in time.
Venezuela, negotiation in a close scenario?
Now, the issue of Venezuela also worries and concerns many. However, the specialist clarified that “it is not a priority for Biden. The internal problems faced by the Democrat, such as COVID-19, the impeachment, will make them not look at foreign policy and even less at South America’s policy as a priority.”
All the facts point, according to Quina, that in time the position of the US president will be more flexible concerning Venezuela and Cuba. “The issue of Guaidó is not a priority, at least in his first year of government. Hopefully, this will not leave him in a somewhat vulnerable situation within Venezuela.”
She emphasized that this could harm Guaidó’s internal Venezuelan situation and that he does not believe that he will continue the position of Trump, who, in her opinion, did everything he put in place with respect to Venezuela and Cuba. He did everything in his power to enforce these sanctions. From many points of view, it is expected that it will continue in that way.
China and Iran, enemies with a murky future
Trump went head-on against the Chinese regime. He didn’t spare any opportunity to strike a blow against the Chinese. He leaves with several executive orders issued against the Xi Jinping government and the Chinese Communist Party.
He also added numerous disagreements paid for by the strengthening of his relations with Taiwan. As a finishing touch, the Secretary of State opened the door to new sanctions by decreeing “genocide” against the Uyghur Muslim minority, which resides in the Xinjiang area.
However, with the Democrat, the prognosis is not so encouraging. Quina argues that the Democrat will soften the issue, all pointing to economic benefits, obviously. “Biden is interested in having the Chinese come in and pay taxes to fund his government. With the economic crisis, with the COVID-19, that relationship will become more flexible.”
The concern is centered on Iran. Trump has set the tone. He was right to walk away from deals where Iran was involved. The nuclear deal showed that. However, the landscape looks different.
Apparently, “Biden will have an opposite policy toward Iran. In fact, he has already started it. In opening the door to talks, with a much more flexible foreign policy toward Iran.” However, a change in how the Democrat plans to pursue this cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, internally, Trump bet and won in many ways. An example of this was the treaties with Mexico and Canada, in his eagerness to attract companies to the US. Events of this nature generated jobs, reactivated the economy, and are activities that should be strengthened and not lost with a new administration.
“Trump has had a look at things done in the United States. Biden should focus his attention on trying to continue them over time,” is a statement common among those of us who are waiting and will gradually follow in the footsteps of the politician whose gaze is focused on the center for one and the left for the other.