Versión Español
Spanish.- Claudia Sheinbaum won the polls with nearly 60% of the vote, according to preliminary results from the National Electoral Institute. Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s protégé won comfortably against an opposition that did not present a significantly different platform. In this context, traditional parties, with Xóchitl Gálvez (PAN-PRI-PRD) and Jorge Álvarez Máynez of the Citizens’ Movement, expressed positions generally linked to social democracy. The “right,” so to speak, was absent in the last electoral process.
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This situation, with Sheinbaum at the helm and López Obrador in the shadows, recalls Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s victory in 2011 when she was reelected with 54% of the vote. At that time, her rivals received minimal support, highlighting a leaderless and utterly fragmented opposition. Competitors included socialist Hermes Binner, Ricardo Alfonsín—who later became a K militant and ambassador to Spain under Alberto Fernández—and Eduardo Duhalde, who was chiefly responsible for bringing Kirchnerism to power in Argentina in 2003.
Many analogies can be drawn from both electoral processes: a left that becomes hegemonic and a lack of representation for conservative voters, who had no viable options to support at the polls, even if just to lose with dignity and secure some seats in Congress as a counterbalance.
CFK’s disaster was linked to this panorama of hegemonic control and majority in both chambers. To this day, Argentina suffers the consequences of nationalizations and other disasters resulting from this concentration of power. One of the reasons for the characteristics of that process was Mauricio Macri, who chose to run for reelection in Buenos Aires rather than the national presidency, thus failing to reduce the overwhelming result and providing future opposition.
Looking at what happened yesterday in Mexico, it is evident that those who could have invested in a stronger opposition considered it a waste of time and money. The outcome was “predictable,” and Sheinbaum was set to become the next leader. Although the presidency was not at stake, this apathy in opposition investment is not neutral. Sheinbaum now arrives with significant power: she will take office with more deputies and governors than AMLO had when he came to power.
One must recognize that the left has always been more “diligent” in this regard. In Brazil, Lula Da Silva ran for president for many years until he had his chance. The same was true for the current Mexican president when he still lacked the votes. It seems that, on the other side, if victory is not guaranteed, the fight is abandoned. As we saw with the 54% for Kirchnerism in Argentina in 2011, this is akin to shooting oneself in the foot.
Sheinbaum’s constraints, if any, may be internal rather than external. She has stated that her presidency will be a “continuation” of the current administration, indicating that AMLO remains (at least for now) a powerful figure within the political sphere.
Moreover, despite missteps in international policy, inevitable corruption and nepotism cases, and missed opportunities for progress, the future ex-president always chose pragmatism over a self-destructive Castro-Chavist path. While the conservative Mexican audience may find this insufficient, those who have suffered under orthodox populism know it can always be worse.
The question now is what to expect from this new version of Morena, with a more powerful Sheinbaum than her predecessor. It seems unlikely that anything significantly positive will emerge. If everything remains relatively stable, it might be good news for Mexicans. We will have to see how Sheinbaum handles power and the new international context, which could soon feature Donald Trump as a powerful neighbor.
For now, the only certainty is that the outlook would have been more hopeful with an opposition proposing something different. There was none at the polls, so it must now be built from scratch. If there had been an alternative candidate who died with their boots on, expressing something different, Sheinbaum would already face some external competition, which she currently lacks.
Political construction always requires representation, beyond the immediacy of electoral results. The left understood this very well. The other side, not so much.
