Versión Español
About 66% of Venezuelans in Florida with the right to vote in the United States are clear about it: the man to vote for on November 3 is the current president, Donald J. Trump, according to a survey by the University of North Florida for El Diario.
The poll shows that the Republican candidate has an advantage of almost double the number of Venezuelan voters in Florida over the Democratic Party candidate, Joe Biden.
The study points out that although the Venezuelan community registered to vote (approximately 50,000) represents a smaller number than the Cuban (650,000), Colombian (190,000), or Haitian (135,000) communities, the vote of Venezuelan-Americans can be key to generating a trend in favor of either candidate.
Beyond the crude percentages that point to a marked difference of 66% in favor of Trump versus 34% for Biden, the other statistics revealed are also worthy of analysis.
Trump wins independent vote
Besides counting with 95% of the Venezuelan Republican vote, the U.S. president also has a strong influence on the independent Venezuelan voter in Florida since six out of ten who have no political affiliation with the Democratic Party or Republican Party will vote for Trump, according to the poll.
Additionally, the most worrying point for the Biden-Harris ticket is the response of Venezuelan Democrats. Trump and Biden are tied: five out of ten Venezuelans with Democratic Party affiliation will vote for Trump. In fact, beyond the record numbers, 53% of Venezuelan democrats support Trump. Biden has 47% support.
Age does not seem to play a major role in the support for Trump. According to El Diario’s own exclusive poll, “voters between the ages of 45 and 54 are the most likely to vote for the current president (87%), as are those over 75 (75%). Only among those between 25 and 34 years of age does Biden achieve greater support (47% choose him).”
They will go out to vote in person
The analysis of the results of El Diario marks a high attendance to the electoral tables by the Venezuelans registered in Florida.
According to the survey, “98% of Venezuelans in Florida with the right to vote see it as “almost certain,” “very probable,” or “somewhat probable” that they will vote on November 3. At the same time, the line is also in favor of President Trump’s campaign, which has insisted that the majority of voters go out and vote physically and by mail. Also, of that 98%, 89% responded: “almost certainly.”
Of the Venezuelan voters in Florida, 21% are Republicans, 16% are Democrats, and 2% are affiliated with another political party, the poll indicates. So the number of independent voters is very high at about 61%, which is why, according to Eugenio Martínez, the political analyst of El Diario, the key to the Venezuelan vote will be which campaign captures and capitalizes on the votes of the independents who, at the moment, are 55-45 in favor of Trump.
Relevant aspects for Venezuelan voters
The poll numbers are clear, the position of the candidates regarding the Venezuelan case weighs heavily, but it is not the most important thing. Right now, 52 % of Venezuelans in Florida will vote based on U.S. economic proposals. This is followed by 17% who are interested in social issues. And 15% of Venezuelans will vote based on the candidates’ position on Venezuela.
According to Martinez, this number is related to the fact that the unemployment rate among the Latino community reached 12% due to the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19.
An important fact, and perhaps not so much reflected in the polls, but good to understand why Venezuelans are closer to Trump, is that nine out of ten Venezuelans believe that the U.S. has been a good ally in recovering democracy in Venezuela.
Only the Venezuelan Democrats consulted are, for the most part, “somewhat in disagreement” or “strongly in disagreement” that the U.S. is a good ally for Venezuela- three out of ten to be precise.
But beyond this, the Democrats themselves (six out of ten) believe that, despite Trump, the Republican Party is the best ally for Venezuela. About 18% of Venezuelan Democrats surveyed believe that both parties are good allies; 20% believe that neither party is, and only 5% believe that their party is the best ally.
If we go to the general count, the poll says that: seven out of ten respondents said that President Trump is Venezuela’s best ally. In contrast, Biden has only 6%.
Among Venezuelans surveyed, only 15% said that the support for Venezuela is bipartisan- something that Juan Guaidó mentioned a few weeks ago. About 9% believe that neither of the two candidates would be a good ally for Venezuela.
Other important statistics
For Venezuelan voters in Florida, several issues may be of general interest, one of which is the solution to get rid of Chavismo for good, to achieve a transition, and finally have free elections.
86% consider the military option as the most feasible for deposing the Chavista criminal conglomerate, 7% believe that sanctions alone will get Maduro out, and negotiations have the worst record with a poor 2%.
According to the report, 96% of Venezuelan voters in Florida view the economic sanctions against Chavismo positively, and 64% support the sanctions, “although they affect Venezuelans directly.” But as explained in the previous paragraph, very few think that this will be enough to get Maduro out of Miraflores.
Another key point: eight out of ten Venezuelans in Florida recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president in Venezuela, 18% think otherwise, and 11% of those say no one represents the office. Only 2% believe that the tyrant Maduro is the real president of Venezuela.
